Thursday, October 30, 2014

Numbers Don’t Lie – or do they?

Last time, I presented you with these 2 numbers:
  
10 billion pesos total PDAF money

From being accused of 1.2 billion pesos, Bong Revilla is now just accountable for 80 million pesos – less than 10% of the total PDAF funds.
From here, we have 2 questions:
1.       Who is responsible for the remaining 90% of the PDAF funds?
2.       Why is there NO MEDIA REPORT about the non-involvement of Bong Revilla in the PDAF funds?

Hmmmm… let’s take a step back.


When the AMLC (Anti-Money Laundering Council) testified through Bank Investigator Atty. Leigh Von Santos in Revilla’s Bail Petition hearings, numbers were again used to lead the public to believe that they found evidence Revilla received kickbacks as alleged by his accusers. Santos floated these  numbers

81 –81 bank accounts
20 –20 closed bank accounts
1:1 –matching transactions
224 million –documented received kickbacks.

Fed with these numbers, the public could do nothing but conclude that Revilla may have indeed committed the crime he was being charged.

But what the AMLC testified to, could not be farther from the truth if we look at all the numbers and what they signify. 

What the AMLC actually and merely found, in simple and unequivocal terms—
in a span of 5 years, from 2006 to 2010, Revilla made multiple deposits amounting to 87 million involving only 5 accounts.

 That is not even 20 million per year on the average.  For a man of Revilla’s earning capacity, it is not a cause for surprise, or if at all, the number is actually surprisingly low. This is so low that for the past 10 years or so, the AMLC never saw anything suspicious in Revilla’s accounts.  In fact, in their first investigation into Revilla finances, they found nothing to raise any suspicion.  Only when the Ombudsman asked them to conduct an investigation and fed them Benhur Luy’s accusations did the AMLC say there were suspicious transactions.

Going back to numbers, Santos did not mention in his testimony, but admitted to on cross-examination, the numbers 5 – as in only 5 accounts that they saw had financial movements, 7 – as in 7 time deposit accounts for the benefit of each child of Revilla, 6 – as in 6 double entries made by the AMLC, 1 – as in 1 erroneous account that was non-existent, 5 – as in a span of 5 years, and 87 – as in 87 million pesos which the AMLC claimed had 1:1 correspondence with 224 million.

In finding 1:1 or matching correspondence, the AMLC used as an absolute basis, the alleged ledger of Benhur Luy found as an annex in his first of many affidavits.  The AMLC no longer read the following affidavits of Luy where he contradicted his previous claims.  The ledger he claims to have prepared by himself, have indications that they were prepared by someone else, and stolen by him.

Luy claims that the numbers in his Hard Disk Drive are irrefutable, and the Ombudsman’s prosecutors presented an NBI Digital Forensic Officer to authenticate the contents of the Drive.  They would want to make the public believe that the numbers in Luy’s HDD is enough to support the findings of the AMLC and convict Revilla.

However, the prosecution miserably failed to authenticate the HDD and the numbers Luy keeps peddling.

The NBI admitted that Luy’s HDD is not an exact copy of the JLN computer’s HDD, which should have been the one subjected to examination.  They admitted that they did not exert efforts to find and seize the original HDD.  The NBI also admitted that they did not get the owner of the files’ consent in examining the Drive.

In testifying, the NBI admitted that their examination of the HDD did not tell them who actually or personally created the files, who actually or personally accessed the files, and what revisions or modifications were introduced to the files.

In other words, the NBI admitted they did not personally see the files being created/modified/changed; who created the files; who modified; or who last saved the files.
In effect, NBI failed to establish the authenticity of the files and the numbers in Luy’s Disk Drive, and haplessly failed to establish, that it was Luy who created, modified and saved the files.
As an aside and speaking of numbers, Luy’s computations made in Court failed to even match what was written on his alleged ledger contained in his HDD.

What Luy did instead was admit to falsifying PDAF and other financial documents, forging signatures, and fabricating accounting entries. 

Looking at the AMLC report submitted to the Sandiganbayan, there is not even any basis for Santos and the AMLC to conclude there was a 1:1 or matching correspondence.  For clarity, portions are reproduced below:

                                        Fig. 1


                                      Fig. 2


                                      Fig. 3


                                      Fig. 4


                                      Fig. 5

                                     Fig. 6


                                      Fig. 7


                                       Fig. 8


see that there is no 1:1 or matching correspondence.

To believe otherwise like how the AMLC would want us to accept, is to concede that 250,000 = 5,000,000 (Fig. 1); that 200,000 = 12,500,000 (Fig. 2); that 100,000 = 7,000,000 (Fig. 3); that 200,000 = 10,000,000 (Fig. 4); that 600,000 = 10,000,000 (Fig. 5); that 500,000 = 17,250,000 (Fig. 6); and that 700,000 = 18,000,000 (Fig. 8). 

Also, to believe claims made by the AMLC, we must believe that time travel is now possible because Revilla was able to deposit in his account on December 11, 2008 the money he allegedly received a day after that, or only on December 12, 2008 (Fig. 7).

In making its conclusions, the AMLC also disregarded the number 2 – as in 2 accounts belonging to the spouses Revilla where their income as actors are remitted.  They did not look into matching the outflow of funds from these accounts to the inflow of funds to the accounts they presumed were suspicious.  Had they done that, they would have seen that the sources of Revilla’s funds were indeed legitimate.

So, by allowing the same numbers in the AMLC report against Revilla to speak and truly represent what they mean, the numbers are clearly saying that there is no basis nor indication that Revilla received 224,512,500.00 pesos.  Likewise, there is basis and indications that he did not receive 224,512,500.00 pesos.

So why is the Ombudsman now moving to garnish Revilla’s assets?

That question cannot be answered by the numbers.  In fact, it is not supported at all by the numbers. 


So yes, numbers do not lie, but numbers are used by liars to perpetrate lies.  While numbers are completely neutral and objective, people who use numbers are subservient to interests.  Thus, numbers can be used to twist the truth to suit agendas.  To what or to whom is the Ombudsman subservient to in this case, and which agenda does their acts suit?  That is the more proper question.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

My thoughts on APECO--


I make no qualms about my dislike for how PNoy is running this country. But once in a while, he does get a few things right. For instance—his support for the Aurora Pacific Economic Zone and Freeport. 

This APECO project has been making the news rounds lately because of the government’s intent to cut the budget for it. Doesn't make much sense though, opening up that side of the country for trading will lend itself to the development of the Philippines. 

In any case, despite the President’s support for the project, it seems the ecozone’s budget is set to be cut by over 80%.  Originally at P251 million, proposed allocation will now be at P45.8 million for 2015. 

Atty. Gerardo Erquiza, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Aurora Pacific Economiz Zone and Freeport Authority weighs in and say this will ‘choke’ province. 


“For decades, Aurora province has been neglected and isolated from the rest of the country,” said Erquiza, explaining that the establishment of APECO was meant to spur economic growth in Aurora, its neighboring provinces, and eventually the entire eastern seaboard of the country. 

What do you think? Leave your comments below.

Sometimes, I really do think PNoy deserves this...


Numbers CAN lie—I think they just did (Part 1 of 2)

I don’t know why everyone is so quick to rally behind the supposed truth of “numbers.” Where is the part where you start questioning why all the politicians are focusing too much on a single person? Where is the consciousness to look to look at the discrepancies? Why are we so quick to take the word of heretofore, unknown whistleblowers (WHO WERE PART OF THE ENTIRE DEAL TO BEGIN WITH!!??!!) over the word of public servants?

I’m not saying the accused are completely absolved of blame—I’m just saying, there might be more to the numbers than meets the eye—or what’s being presented to our eyes, at least.

Case in point:

When the PDAF scandal first broke, we were all presented with a number—a massive, impressive one too:

10,000,000,000 (that’s 10 billion pesos) pocketed by politicians.

Too big for the public to ignore.

It’s been 3 months since this figure was announced. And to this day—

·      I don’t know how this number was reached—did they really retrace all the missing funds and unfinished project from every politician and it added up to a cool, even 10 billion?
·      If we are to look at the COA (Commission on Audit) Special Audit Report on the PDAF, the investigation reports of the Ombudsman FIO (Field Investigation Office) and the affidavits of self-styled whistleblowers, the number 10 billion is nowhere to be found. 
·      I should also point out that the aggregate amount in the charges that were filed by the Ombudsman with the Sandiganbayan, 10 billion is not even in the ballpark because the total amount does not even reach 1 billion pesos.

I would assume that this figure was used to capture the attention of Filipinos and then use it to incite public anger. A move that defines bias and subjectivity among masses.

And then there’s the case of Senator Bong Revilla, Jr.—a public servant accused of pocketing 1.2 billion pesos.

Again, too big for the public to ignore.

But through the course of his trial, here are the inconsistencies I’ve noticed:

·      The 1.2 billion was reduced to a third during the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee hearings—to 400 million—a whole new number.
·      When it was the Ombudsman’s turn to file a case against Revilla with the Sandiganbayan, this number was again reduced by half. We’re now at 224 million.
·      When trial begin for his bail petition, it was again reduced to just 80 million.

Now, here’s my beef with the media—


Whey weren’t these figures published? Explained? For whatever reason this was left out in the reporting, it speaks so much about journalistic integrity in my country. After all, missing billions as opposed to a paltry few million, especially when this was for a former actor/producer who probably could earn as much through movies and endorsements, would sell a lot more papers and ratings.

But wait...there's more. Watch out for my next post about the discrepancies in numbers in one of the country's most contentious corruption scandals--all the inconsistencies, what the media left out and what the public should know. 

READ MY PART 2 HERE: CLICK ME

Monday, October 20, 2014

As funny as this is--

--it actually says a lot about the man at the helm of the country.


We put him in office :/ Just saying...

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

State of the nation?


Photo taken from: https://pulpolitika.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/minions-meeting-2.jpg